Iraq's Misunderstood Violence: Localized Chaos

The pattern of violence in Iraq is too localized and disorganized to be resolved through political negotiation, say University of Maryland researchers John Steinbruner and Tim Gulden. They argue that the conflict is too chaotic to be described as an insurgency or civil war.

"It is increasingly evident that the forceful removal of the Saddam Hussein regime triggered such a profound disintegration of Iraqi society that basic legal order could not be preserved anywhere in the country," says Steinbruner, a University of Maryland professor of public policy and director of the Center for International Security at Maryland (CISSM). "Without effective restraint, violent predators have emerged whose actions are not directed by any purpose that might be subject to negotiated settlement on a national scale."

Steinbruner and Gulden base their argument, in part, on the pattern and levels of violence reported: the high number of civilian casualties and the smaller incidence of large-scale casualties compared to other conflicts.

"This suggests the violence is not prompted by a small number of large groups, but is instead being generated spontaneously by conditions on the ground -- namely a breakdown of legal order," says Gulden, a CISSM fellow and researcher at Maryland.

Steinbruner and Gulden are available for media interviews and may be contacted directly:

Steinbruner: 301-405-4578 (office); 202-244-9142 (home); jsteinbr@umd.edu.
Gulden: 301-405-4020 (office); 301-404-5747 (home); tgulden@umd.edu

Additional Iraq/terrorism/international security experts at UM may be previewed online: http://www.newsdesk.umd.edu/experts/hottopic.cfm?hotlist_id=104